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Forecasting Software Suppliers
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Below is a list of software suppliers who specialize in business forecasting software, along with some selected information on the functions of the software. Most of the information below was taken from publicly available sources including the respective websites. In many cases, additional information is available at those same websites.
Click on the company name to jump to the listing and contact information: Automatic Forecasting Systems, Inc. Business Forecast Systems, Inc. JDA Software Group (Manugistics Group, Inc.) McConnell Chase Software Works
Automatic Forecasting Systems, Inc.
P O Box 563 Hatboro PA 19040
Phone: 215 675-0652
Email: dave@autobox.com
Autobox is an objective, statistical, extrapolative
forecasting system that uses a rule-based heuristics system approach to ARIMA (univariate) and Transfer Function
(causal) modeling. The system provides an automated approach to modeling
of time series using both the history of that time series and the history of possible user-suggested causal variables.
This model is often called a Polynomial Distributed Lag or a Dynamic Regression or more collectively the class of
Box-Jenkins Models. It augments this class by enhancing the model with empirically identified Intervention Variables
such as Local Time Trends, Level Shifts, Seasonal Pulses and One-time Pulses yielding a robust model. These tools can
produce forecasts for large numbers of series with limited or no manual intervention. Users can pre-suggest models
and/or parameters to possibly enhance model formulation. Autobox was developed based on two central beliefs.
One, that the Box-Jenkins approach (both univariate – ARIMA - and transfer function - causal models), to model
identification, estimation, model diagnostics and forecasting provides the proper framework for forecasting. The
Box-Jenkins modeling paradigm is rich and according to the company, subsumes most other common forms of numerical
forecasting techniques such as regression and exponential smoothing. The second belief is that procedures that consist of
methods applied in a consistent way are subject to automation. According to the company, Box-Jenkins forecasting
techniques are one such set of methods. The Autobox forecasting engine applies the modeling philosophy of Box and
Jenkins to time series and can build the models automatically. To produce more accurate forecasts, AUTOBOX
automatically tailors the model to the problem at hand including selecting the best lead and lag structures for each
input series and the best weightings. It corrects for omitted variables (e.g., holidays or price changes that have
affected the historical data, but that the system has no knowledge of) by identifying pulses, seasonal pulses, level
shifts and local time trends, and then adding the needed structure through surrogate variables. Conversely, it also
eliminates unneeded structure (e.g., a statistically unimportant causal variable) to keep the model manageable. It
performs all these functions as part of its normal routine without human intervention. It also reports the statistical
tests used to determine the model parameters, and let users manipulate the coefficients and model structure if they
want. The modeling logic of Autobox incorporates causal
factors into the forecast. These include factors like:
Features: Automatic Modeling The user can let Autobox do as much or as
little of the model building process as the complexity of the problem dictates. This option is implemented in such a
way that it can be turned on at any stage of the modeling process. Tournament Modeling By approaching the modeling problem from
many different angles, Autobox chooses the one model that outperforms all of the others. Complete
set of Box-Jenkins modeling Tools Autobox comes with a complete set of
identification and modeling tools for use in the Box-Jenkins framework. The user has the ability to transform or
pre-whiten the chosen series for identification purposes. Autobox handles both ARIMA (univariate) modeling and Transfer
Function (multivariate) modeling. Intervention Detection Autobox implements techniques that
quickly and accurately identify potential interventions (level shifts, season pulses, single point outliers and changes
in the variance of the series). Graphical Analysis Tools Autobox has a set of graphing tools that
help present complex statistical information in a way that is easy and clear at every stage of the forecasting process.
Plotting can include any combination of variables, including fit versus actual, forecasts with confidence limits, etc.
Forecasting and Diagnostics Autobox has options to help analyze the
stability and forecasting ability of the forecast model. Database and Model Storage Autobox has a complete data and model
warehousing structure built into the program. Autobox's data management capabilities are specifically designed to
address the specific problems faced by a forecaster. Measures to Assess Forecast Model Performance Autobox includes the following metrics:
Forecast Mean Deviation (Bias) Forecast Mean Percent Error Forecast Mean Absolute Deviation Forecast Mean Absolute % Error Forecast Variance (Precision) Forecast Bias Squared (Reliability) Forecast Mean Square Error (Accuracy) Relative Absolute Error According to
the company, Autobox was ranked the top standalone forecasting package in a study conducted by the University of
Pennsylvania (http://www-marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/forecast/paperpdf/Tashman-Hoover%20Tables.pdf).
Phone:
724/586-2200
Focus Forecasting® is a simple, non-statistical system that uses objective data and “simulation” logic to determine which of the system’s simple forecasting strategies would have worked best in the recent past. For example, the Focus Forecasting® system might have strategies like: We’ll
sell what we sold last year. We’ll
sell 10% more than last year. We’ll
sell what we sold the last quarter. We’ll
probably sell half as much as we sold in the last six months. Every time Focus Forecasting® is asked to produce a
forecast on an item, it tries all the strategies on the past sales for the item
and calculates which one of the strategies would have worked best in the recent past for forecasting the item.
This is the strategy that the system chooses for producing a forecast for future sales.
Focus Forecasting® has approximately twenty (20)
forecasting strategies, similar to the ones listed above. Generally
speaking, Focus Forecasting is: Simple: although it is based on data, there
is no complicated mathematics. Forecasting strategies tend to parallel the strategies that people in sales or marketing might use in
forecasting an item. Transparent: the forecasting process is
easy to understand, and perhaps more importantly, it is possible to explain where the forecast number came from.
Based on the idea that the most accurate
predictor of the future is the recent past. Additional functions of the software: Import from and export to a variety of
formats including MS Excel, Lotus 1-2-3, ASCII, etc. Forecast adjustment and overrides either by
specifying the forecasting strategy or entering period overrides directly. Forecast evaluation and best-fit selection
(automatic) or specify manually. Business Forecast Systems, Inc.
68 Leonard Street Phone: 617 484-5050 Forecast Pro is an objective, statistical,
extrapolative forecasting system that uses multiple methods and a best-fit selection process.
The expert system chooses among the following five
classes of forecasting models: Simple
Methods - moving average models. Curve
Fitting - supports four types of curves - straight line, quadratic, exponential and growth. Low
Volume Models - Croston's Intermittent Demand model and discrete data models are provided to accommodate low volume and
"sparse" data (i.e., data where the demand is often zero). Exponential
Smoothing - Twelve different Holt-Winters exponential smoothing models are provided.
Box-Jenkins
- supports a multiplicative seasonal Box-Jenkins model. Also available in an advanced version of the software
are: Dynamic Regression – Build causal models
(generalized Cochrane-Orcutt models) that include independent variables, lagged or transformed variables.
Event Models - Extend exponential smoothing
by providing adjustments for events like promotions, strikes or other irregular occurrences, or the effects of holidays
like Easter and Rosh Hashanah. Multiple Level Exponential Smoothing -
Aggregate data into groups that can be reconciled using a top-down or bottom-up approach to produce consistent
forecasts at all levels of aggregation. Seasonal and event indexes can be
extracted from higher level aggregates and applied to lower level data. Census X-11 - Factors a time series into
its major constituents (trend-cycle, seasonal, trading day and irregular). Additional functions of the software: Import from and export to a variety of
formats including MS Excel, Lotus 1-2-3, ASCII and ODBC. Forecast adjustment using either a graph or
spreadsheet display, Provides functions for documenting
assumptions, overrides and adjustments. Expert selection (automatic) or specify
manually. Hierarchical drill down capabilities,
adjusting the forecast at one level of a hierarchy adjusts all other (appropriate) levels.
According to the company, Forecast Pro recently
outperformed all other software approaches and 18 out of 19 academic teams in the Makridakis-3 study, the largest and
most comprehensive empirical forecasting study ever performed.
Email: demsol@demandsolutions.com
Demand Solutions is a simple, non-statistical system
that uses objective data and “simulation” logic to select the formula which best
addresses each item's demand pattern. Like some other forecasting systems, Demand Solutions
uses some simple forecasting strategies We’ll
sell what we sold last quarter. We’ll
sell what we sold in the same quarter last year. We’ll
sell 10% less than what we sold last year. We’ll
sell 10% more than what we sold last year. Demand Solutions includes several modules: DS FM (Demand Solutions Forecast
Management) is the forecasting engine and data warehouse.
DS FB (Demand Solutions Feedback)
is the collaboration mechanism of the system. DS View (Demand Solutions Reporting and
Analysis) a custom reporting and data analysis tool. Every time Demand Solutions is asked to produce a
forecast on an item, it tries all the strategies on the past sales for the item
and calculates which one of the strategies would have worked best in the recent past for forecasting the item.
This is the strategy that the system chooses for producing a forecast for future sales.
Demand Solutions has approximately twenty (23)
forecasting strategies, similar to the ones listed above but also including some simple exponential smoothing
techniques. The system also includes tools for:
Making adjustments and overrides. Aggregating forecasts to family levels. Adding notes to track assumptions. Analyzing data by aggregation, rotation, filtering, sorting and other
manipulations.
P.O. Box 627 West Chester, PA 19381
Phone:
484-653-5345
Demand Works offers standalone or server-based solutions for forecasting, demand management, multilevel supply planning and S&OP. All Smoothie® solutions feature Pivot Forecasting®, a proprietary technology that makes it possible to seamlessly plan at any level of aggregation and along any dimension.
767c Concord Avenue Phone: 617 876-2500 www.oracle.com/demantra/index.html Demantra (“Demand is our Mantra”) provides an
objective, statistical, extrapolative forecasting system. According to the
company, the forecasting techniques of the system are based on sophisticated combinative statistical analysis methods.
These include exponential smoothing and ARIMA. Again according to
the company “Demand Planner is the most powerful and accurate demand planning and forecasting engine of its kind.”
The suite of Demantra software includes:
Demand
Planner™ - the forecasting engine. Demand
Collaborator™ - collaborative support for multiple trading partners. Demand Analyzer™ - business intelligence analyzer. Features
of the system include: Consolidates
multiple views of demand. Information
easily accessible, actionable. Causal
event planning included. Displays
trends and market conditions in a variety of quickly understood reports. Drill
downs allow access to appropriate levels of detail. Supports
exception-driven work environment. Graphical,
intuitive workbench interface. Advanced
OLAP (On-line Analytical Processing) analysis of demand and product changes. Multi-dimensional
Planning methodology includes product hierarchy, distribution network, marketing channels, etc.
Simulations
based on modifications to historical or future data. Advanced
utilities to facilitate new product and new market planning. Event
/ promotion planning supported.
12015 Summitview Road Yakima, WA 98908
Phone:
509 853-5000
The Finished Goods Series
Demand Planner is an objective, statistical, extrapolative forecasting system that uses multiple methods including
Fourier Seasonal Profiles, Winter’s Base Index, moving average, exponential smoothing.
FGS uses the demand history
for each SKU to compute a mathematical model of the demand, which it then projects into the future. FGS contains
multiple families of forecasting models, including the Fourier Seasonal Profiles.
The system’s automatic model-fitting logic determines the level, trend, and appropriate seasonal cycles, if
significant. The user can override these decisions. FGS includes the ability to
identify and use the forecasting calendar most appropriate to each SKU, allowing items to be forecasted bimonthly,
quarterly, semiannually, or annually; even though the items reside in the same database. The forecasting calendar
implementation in FGS also eliminates the error inherent in assuming that a period has the same length from one year to
the next. For example, with calendar months, January could have as few as 18 or as many as 22 selling days, in
different years. FGS includes many
Statistical Process Control (SPC) tools to monitor the forecasting process, identifying those SKUs which are going
outside control limits, and those which are doing fine on "autopilot." FGS supports a multi-tiered
forecasting approach at any user-defined levels. Summarizing and forcing forecasts (up or down) according to a
pyramidal organization, can be set or changed at any time, and the system allows multiple (potentially overlapping)
pyramids. Forecasting techniques in
the system include: Fourier Seasonal Profiles (Seasonal). Base Index (Seasonal Index, Winter's) Level Level and Trend Moving Average Exponential Smoothing Heuristic Modifications of the above techniques. Exception conditions
detected by the system are: Outliers Pattern Change Lumpy Demand All Time Supply High Error Short History Recommended Calendar Change - to
a less frequent calendar
333 Sylvan Avenue Phone: 201 541-3888 Futurcast is an objective, statistical, extrapolative
forecasting system that uses multiple methods and an expert system selection
process. Key features of the software include:
Infor Global Solutions 13560 Morris Road Suite 4100 Alpharetta, GA 30004 Toll Free 866-244-5479 Tel. 678-319-8000 Fax: 678-319-8682 sales@infor.com
PACKAGE INFORMATION: Mercia is an objective, statistical, extrapolative forecasting system that uses multiple methods and an Bayesian algorithm to construct the correct forecasting model for each entity being forecasted. The Bayesian Dynamic Linear Modelling techniques of the software provide dynamic low-intervention statistical routines that automatically detect and adjust the best statistical model for each product. Facilities exist to support subjective input to the forecast where future demand is not dependant solely on historical patterns. Intelligence can be drawn from a variety of sources, both internally and by collaborating externally with customers and suppliers. The end result is a stable "one number" demand plan that can be used to drive the entire supply chain. The resulting plan is monitored on a continual basis to help manage exceptional events in the supply chain and ensure that the forecast is in line with actual demand and the budget. By focusing on what is important (exceptions and critical products) the forecasting process can be run very efficiently, with the absolute minimum manual intervention. Key features include:
19775
Derby Street West
Linn, Oregon 97068 USA
Phone:
+1 (503) 744-0699 office
Forecasting is accomplished through multiple formulas ranging from simple moving averages to more complex seasonal, trend, exponential smoothing, etc. algorithms.
Best-pick
forecasting functionality is provided by Business Forecast Systems'
Forecast Pro forecasting software (see above for details). JDA Software Group (Manugistics Group, Inc.)
2115 East Jefferson Street Phone: 301 984-5000 According to Manugistics, NetWORKS™ is an objective, statistical,
extrapolative forecasting system that uses multiple methods and a best-fit selection process.
As in the case of other “best-fit” forecasting systems, NetWORKS™ selects the forecasting algorithm that
best suits the client business. However an additional feature (the “AutoTuner”)
automatically determines optimal parameter settings. NetWORKS™ also
includes advanced causal modeling, Manugistics has a long history of providing forecasting software to
business. In one of its early systems, the company developed a Fourier
analysis function for forecasting. In more recent years, the forecasting
method used by Manugistics NetWORKS™ has been Lewandowski’s Forsys, a modified Holt-Winters approach that
incorporates trend dampening. NetWORKS Demand provides intelligent event modeling capabilities and
allows for management overrides. It can links product mix, promotion, and
price analyses with traditional demand forecasting, and it enables the simultaneous tracking and understanding of
demand along multiple dimensions such as sales, marketing, and logistics. Some features of the system include:
39 South LaSalle Street, Suite 815 Phone: 312 701-9026 ForecastX is an objective, statistical, extrapolative forecasting
system that uses multiple methods and a best-fit selection process. The statistical forecasting techniques in ForecastX
include including Time-Series forecasting, New Product forecasting, ARIMA Modeling and Event Modeling. The system includes multiple modules:
ForecastX Engine – provides the technology to support
CPFR integration as well as DRP, feeds widely available Business Intelligence tools.
ForecastX Collaborator - allows development of a
collaborative planning process. ForecastX SDK (software development kit) – provides
ActiveX controls, cross platform libraries, and Java applets to allow the forecasting functions of ForecastX to be
embedded in external applications. ForecastX Wizard – provides integration with
Microsoft Excel for data analysis and increased analytical power.
Provides five different graphical reports to display forecasted results.
Wizard identifies past trends and selects the best forecasting model.
Reporting features include trend adjustment, auto-filter, and the ability to track changes and adjustments
within reports. ForecastX BI Add-in – a plug-in provides a way to add
statistical forecasting to existing Business Intelligence Tools. Features include:
According to John Galt Solutions “The accuracy of ForecastX was
proven at the M3 academic competition.” Of particular interest to anyone who would like to understand
various statistical forecasting techniques: ForecastX is available on CD with the book “Business Forecasting, Fourth
Edition” by J. Holt Wilson, Central Michigan University, Barry Keating, University of Notre Dame, and John Galt
Solutions.
Fax: 404 238-5450
The Demand Chain Planning modules of Logility Voyager Solutions
includes an objective, statistical, extrapolative forecasting system. The Demand Chain Planning modules of Logility are:
Some features of the system include:
Graphical snapshots that include multiple levels of
aggregation - including item, location, customer, and/or group, etc.
Facilitates extended one-number planning and
collaboration across the enterprise. Multidimensional analysis capabilities Promotions, seasonality and organizational strategies
incorporated into forecasts Pre-trained neural-network models in Event Planning can
help analyze potential effects of multiple promotional elements such as price discounts, coupons, advertising and
product placements Causal-based forecast
models support simulations of alternative marketing programs
McConnell Chase Software Works 360 East Randolph Street, Suite 3202 312 540 1508 Email: jkm@mcconnellchase.com Forecasting for Demand 6.0 (FD6) is an objective, statistical, extrapolative forecasting system that
uses multiple methods and a best-fit selection process. Users can choose between forecasting techniques developed by McConnell Chase and ones that are part
of Forecast Pro, licensed from Business Forecast Systems, Inc. Forecast
Pro recently outperformed all other software approaches and 18 out of 19 academic teams in the Makridakis-3 study, the
largest and most comprehensive empirical forecasting study ever performed. The system supports level, trend, seasonality, events and other causal modeling, and utilizes a
variety of techniques. Among the many methods FD6 provides for generating
statistical forecasts are methods for intermittent or low volume items, and methods with non-normal distributions:
Poisson, binomial, negative binomial. FD6 allows for conditioning outliers, providing multiple demand sources (EDI, POS, etc), normalizing
irregular periods, optimizing accuracy at specific time periods, data limiting, and substitution/obsolescence linking. Specifically, the methods include:
FD6 provides a comprehensive and efficient process for factoring in all information on what sales are
expected to be. This process combines: Statistical forecasting, which extrapolates the future based on the past, Sales force forecasting, which calibrates and imports the sales funnel and other customer
and prospect intelligence, Judgment, which captures different assessments of the impact on sales of economic,
competitive and company events, and Management input -- goals and strategy, direction and insight, new product release plans,
company projects, market research, marketing plans, promotional plans, financial and operational considerations. The system:
Comes with 17 standard, configurable reports that can
be printed, emailed, written to MS Excel, Allows salesmen to connect via the internet, work
offline, and reconnect to update the central database, Comes with systems integration software for any ERP
system, Saves forecasts and the reasons for forecasting
decisions, and provides error tracking and error analysis for improving accuracy. To facilitate collaboration, FD6 provides a comprehensive pivot table, plus extensive graphical and
reporting functions, that allow people from every department to aggregate, slice and dice, evaluate, and participate in
the forecasting process according to the units and levels of detail in which they think, plan and work.
The software also includes forecasting/planning hierarchies to provide both aggregate and detail control from
different perspectives. 1247 Ward Avenue Prescient’s Sales Forecasting and Demand Planning modules include an objective, statistical,
extrapolative forecasting system that uses multiple methods and a best-fit selection process.
Key features include:
100 SAS Campus Drive Phone: (919) 677-8000 SAS provides a set of functions for developing a complete forecasting and demand planning system as
well as a pre-configured objective, statistical, extrapolative forecasting system that uses multiple methods and a
best-fit selection process. Contact the company for details on their forecasting software.
Four Hill Road Phone: 800 762-7899, 617 489-2743 SmartForecasts is an objective, statistical, extrapolative
forecasting system that uses multiple methods and a best-fit selection process. The
system comes in three different versions SmartForecasts Professional to automatically forecast up to 150 product or
other items at a time, SmartForecasts Commercial to forecast up to 1,000 items at a time, and SmartForecasts Enterprise
to forecasts up to 100,000 items per hour. Features of the system include:
Intuitive Windows User Interface.
Multiple Windows Displays to view product data,
forecast graphs and reports simultaneously. Integration with Microsoft Excel.
SmartForecasts features an Excel-like spreadsheet interface; full Excel 97/2000 file compatibility; and Cut,
Copy and Paste capabilities to transfer forecast data, reports and graphs to other Windows applications. Context-sensitive On-line Help.
Best-fit logic incorporates trends, seasonal patterns
and the effects of promotions and other special events. Interactive Adjustments permit direct adjustment of
forecast numbers. Multilevel (Multiseries) Forecasting supports top-down
and bottom-up forecasts, by product group/item or item/region, for large groups containing hundreds or thousands of
items. Expanded Promotion and Event Models automatically
forecast promotion-driven sales and demand and now allow for different promotional scenarios for each different
stockkeeping unit (SKU). Multivariate Regression for Cause-and-Effect Forecasts.
Complete Set of Data Analysis Tools include timeplots,
scatterplots, auto/cross-correlation analysis, descriptive statistics, seasonal adjustment and time series
decomposition. Forecast Audit Reports and accuracy measures.
Automatic Trend Hedging™ Intermittent Demand Forecasting (patent-pending).
Import and export data stored in all Excel, Lotus and
ASCII file formats, Copy and Paste data from other applications, or transfer data directly from a client/server
database system. SmartForecasts' Data Table is also multidimensional,
accommodating multiple columns for product labels and multiple labels for each item. "Slice and dice" and
forecast product data defined by multidimensional criteria (e.g., product item by group, item by region, etc.).
5460 Fairmont Drive Wilmington DE 19808 Phone: 302 738-9215 Contact the company for details on their forecasting software.
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